With more than 1,000,000 members the
National Association of Realtors® is the nation’s largest trade
association. It’s no wonder that what it says carries a lot of weight. When a
gargantuan outfit like NAR makes a prediction, its words may not always make
headlines, but they do influence everyone whose job it is to forecast the
future of the nation’s economic activity.
why their most recent report dealing with pending home sales put smiles on many
of those one million members’ faces.
“The spring home buying season looks
bright,” according to Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “If activity is sustained
near present levels, existing-home sales will see their best performance in
Like all statistics, those he was
describing can be looked at in more than one way. We know that some numbers are
more reliable than others. This particular index is based on an unusually large
sample: about 20% of all transactions for existing home sales. It’s a forward-looking
indicator: in the past, it has signaled coming trends before they materialize.
This index seldom produces a straight line of activity because of seasonal and
monthly ups and downs, but this time a trend is evident that is “notably above
the pattern from a year ago.”
Our Kenai home sale patterns are not invariably tied to national trends — but they
aren’t impervious to them, either. So we
are pleased when our own impression that the spring market is looking up is
borne out by the experts who deal in the broader picture. “Based on all of the
factors in the current market,” Yun went on, he expects to see “sales rising 7
to 10 percent in 2012.”
Real estate is a famously local
phenomenon, and although we keep an eye on the national and state markets, our
real attention is always centered right here in town.
If you have questions about your own real estate outlook, call me anytime for a
consultation focused on your neighborhood.